NFL Confidence Ratings

NFL Confidence Ratings | Chris Schisler

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Offseason Power rankings are popular within the sports media realm. I do not like the idea of power rankings, especially before a down of football has been played. 2013 is an unknown quantity. The truth is we do not know who will be the most powerful team. Every year there are teams that surprise both good and bad. Instead of listing definitive power rankings I will list the teams I have the most confidence in. For me to have a high deal confidence in a team they need to meet three requirements. Firstly they must have good quarterback play. There is no way around this (Not even for Minnesota who has Adrian Peterson). Secondly the team must have a great coach. Finally the team must have a decent defense. I am ranking teams on an interval between 1 and 10. The number signifies the amount of confidence I have in the team. I am only ranking teams with a legitimate chance to be a playoff team. This eliminates nearly two thirds of the league from my confidence rankings.
The Formula
I created an equation to compute my confidence rating for each team on the list. First I rate the team’s quarterback, coach and defense on a scale of 1-10. Then I compute the average for the three scores. Finally I subtract 0.05 for each additional reservation I have about the team, which the formula does not involve heavily.
The Confidence Ratings
1.) Baltimore Ravens : Confidence rating 9.23
2.) San Francisco 49ers: Confidence rating 9.23
3.) New England Patriots: Confidence rating 8.9
4.) Seattle Seahawks: Confidence rating 8.61
5.) Denver Broncos: Confidence rating 8.51
6.) Houston Texans: Confidence rating 7.9
7.) Green Bay Packers: Confidence rating 7.95
8.) Washington Redskins: Confidence rating 7.85
9.) New York Giants: Confidence rating 7.85
10.) New Orleans Saints Confidence rating 7.8
11.) Pittsburgh Steelers: Confidence rating 7.73
12.) Indianapolis Colts: Confidence rating 7.56
13.) Atlanta Falcons: Confidence rating 7.51
14.) Cincinnati Bengals: Confidence rating 7
15.) Minnesota Vikings: Confidence rating 6.66
About the Confidence Ratings
This is not a list of teams based on who is the best. This is a list of teams based on who I have confidence in to do the best. Track records and recent history were not calculated but are a factor in my decision making. Football is a production business. A large part of believing in a team is based on what they have done for me lately. My rating of the three criteria depended heavily on what I have seen from this past season. For example I present the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons scored a 7 for QB and 8’s for coaching and defense. This adds to a 7.66 average. They then received deductions for extra reservations. These reservations included:
1.) Their lack of playoff success
2.) Inconsistent running game
3.) Giving up big plays on defense
The teams at the top of the list are highlighted in blue. These teams have quarterbacks that give you a chance to compete for a championship, great coaching and at least solid defenses. What differentiates this group is they have proven to be contenders. This group is highlighted because I believe they are the Super Bowl contenders, on a list of playoff contenders.
The Baltimore Ravens and the San Fransisco 49ers were the last two teams standing last year. They are the top teams in my eyes. The Ravens at least on paper got better defensively. Joe Flacco has shown the world that he is an elite passer. The .05 deductions the Ravens got were for the uncertainty of their offensive line as well as their wide receiver corps. (The Ravens offensive line is very good, but can McKinnie last the season? This is yet to be determined). The Ravens scored a 10 on quarterback (meaning he is a top tier passer) a 10 on coaching and an 8 for defense. Truthfully the defense could be better than its rating, but it will take time to come together. The 49ers scored an 8 for quarterback, and 10’s for defense and coaching. Their deductions were for giving up deep passes and for injury plagued wide receivers. There is little doubt in my opinion that these are the two most trustworthy teams.
This is not a list of power rankings. This list tells you who’s stock I buy into and how much. By using a formula I can defend my ratings quantitatively. Instead of giving you a biased and sloppy power rankings, I chose to give you the calculated worth of each team. Agree? Disagree? Let the conversation begin.
Tweet at me on Twitter @footballman58 and use #NFLConfidenceRatings !

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